Climate change: No consensus needed

Lake Cachet II in Aysen, Chilean Patagonia, disappeared because of rising temperatures driven by climate change, experts say.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Tseming Yang: Result of Doha climate change conference less than desirable


• Yang: It's time to abandon the myth that a consensus solution is the best approach


• He says the 25 major carbon emitters should work out an agreement among themselves


• Yang: Smaller, focused discussions may be better than large, U.N.-style gatherings

Editor's note: Tseming Yang, former deputy general counsel at the Environmental Protection Agency, is professor of law at Santa Clara University Law School.

(CNN) -- The Doha climate change conference this year was the most significant in nearly 20 years of gatherings under the U.N. Framework Convention process aimed at staving off future global warming disaster.

Since carbon dioxide emission limits agreed to under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol were to expire at the stroke of midnight on December 31, 2012, it was critical that the international community agreed to extend those obligations and to continue talks about future emission cuts.

But the outcome fell far short of what will be necessary to keep the world's average temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius in the foreseeable future.

Under the Doha arrangement, 17 of the 25 biggest carbon emitting countries (including China, the United States, Russia and India) did not commit to any legally binding emission limits. The countries that did agree to extend and deepen their Kyoto emission reductions, including the European Union, Australia and Eastern Europe, make up only about 15% of the world's emissions. That seems like a rather meager return on the investment of time and effort over the past years.

But there is one silver lining.

The world's top 20 carbon emitters together make up about 77% of emission and account for about 4.3 billion people, which is about 62% of the global population. The remaining 170 or so countries account for just over 20% of emissions.

As often is the case, these negotiations over climate have come to symbolize epic David and Goliath struggles pitting poor developing countries against recalcitrant government officials from rich countries. Lobbying efforts, shaming tactics, and staging public demonstrations have been the slingshots of choice. One result is that more people are paying attention to environmental issues.

Nonetheless, it is time to abandon the myth that a consensus solution is necessarily the best approach. The unfortunate reality is that little can get done right now. It's like having hundreds of cooks with hundreds of different recipes attempting to prepare one meal in the same small kitchen. After two decades of hard work, it is time to consider reducing the number of cooks.

A better alternative to a United Nations-style conference would be for the 25 major emitters to come to an agreement just among themselves about their mutual commitments to deal with climate change effectively.

In other words, get the 25 cooks to work together on the main meal. The hundreds of other cooks ought to step out of the kitchen.

Some smaller, focused discussions have already started, such as in the Major Economies Forum. Imagine what kind of deals on cutting emissions would be possible just among China, India and the United States -- the top three emitters in the world respectively. Imagine a deal involving emission sources in China, which has some of the world's most polluting coal-fired power plants, and California, which is on a course to become one of the most stringently controlled states in carbon emissions.

Of course, there are no guarantees for success. But discussions within such a smaller group would allow government leaders to confront the realities of climate change and engage in direct horse-trading without the static of thousands of other voices desiring to load their issues into the deal.

Let's face it -- we are way beyond the time for finding an ideal solution. Every year the world waits to take further concrete steps to cut emissions, the atmosphere will be loaded with millions of tons more carbon dioxide that will stay for a century. And the job of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius will be more out of reach.

At the best, gatherings like the one in Doha dangle a tantalizing mirage of achieving a sustainable future. At the worst, they give cover to governments that would rather avoid the hard choices they ultimately will have to make.

After one more expensive and time-consuming round of talks, it's time to be honest with what can really be accomplished in these U.N.-style gatherings.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Tseming Yang.

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'Thunderbirds' creator Gerry Anderson dies aged 83

LONDON: Gerry Anderson, the British director and creator of the cult sci-fi animation series "Thunderbirds", died on Wednesday aged 83, his son announced.

Anderson had been suffering from Alzheimer's disease since 2010 and his health had deteriorated in the past six months, causing him to be moved into a care home in October, Jamie Anderson said.

The animator created "Joe 90", "Stingray" and "Captain Scarlet", but he was best known for "Thunderbirds", which used a form of marionette puppetry dubbed "Supermarionation".

The series, first shown in Britain in 1965, followed the adventures of a highly secretive organisation whose mission was to help those in peril using spacecraft and a range of high-tech vehicles operating from a Pacific Island.

The characters' catchphrases, such as "Thunderbirds are go!" and "FAB", were incorporated into the vocabularies of a generation of young fans.

"I'm very sad to announce the death of my father, 'Thunderbirds' creator, Gerry Anderson," his son announced on his personal website.

"He died peacefully in his sleep at midday today having suffered with mixed dementia for the past few years."

Earlier this year, Anderson himself described how he became aware of his illness.

"I don't think I realised at all. It was my wife Mary who began to notice that I would do something quite daft like putting the kettle in the sink and waiting for it to boil," he told the BBC.

At a charity event for the Alzheimer's Society in July, Anderson said that although he tried to stay positive "and enjoy every day", dementia was a debilitating illness that affected not just him but also his family.

He said that not being able to drive was "the bitterest blow", adding: "That virtually took away my freedom.

"It meant that I couldn't go to Pinewood Studios where I worked, and this depressed me enormously because my film work was my life. Suddenly my life was cut off."

Anderson began his career studying fibrous plastering, the technique used to make mouldings, but he suffered from dermatitis and had to switch to work as a photographer.

He also briefly earned a living as an air traffic controller before setting up a film company with friends.

His first commission was a children's puppet series called "The Adventures of Twizzle", which allowed him to perfect the technique of Supermarionation.

It first involved recording the soundtrack for the voices. Then when the puppets were being filmed, the electric signal from the taped dialogue was transmitted to sensors in the puppets' heads.

That meant that the marionettes' lips were synchronised with the soundtrack, which after being perfected in "Fireball XL5" and "Stingray" was ready for the launch of "Thunderbirds".

Anderson came up with the idea for "Thunderbirds" in 1963 while listening to a radio report about a revolutionary machine being transported across Germany to rescue miners trapped deep in a mine.

He developed the concept with his second wife, TV and film producer Sylvia Anderson, to whom he was married from 1960 to 1981.

First shown on Britain's ITV network, the series was set 100 years in the future, but despite its glamorous concept, it was filmed in the drab surroundings of a trading estate in Slough to the west of London.

The plot revolved around International Rescue, manned by the Tracy family, often assisted by the glamorous Lady Penelope -- voiced by Sylvia Anderson -- and her butler, Parker.

Anderson remained involved in the film industry until relatively recently, working on a CGI-animated television version of "Captain Scarlet", and as consultant on a Hollywood remake of his 1969 series "UFO".

Anderson leaves behind his widow Mary and their son Jamie, and three children from his previous marriages, Joy, Linda and Gerry Junior.

-AFP/ac

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Decluttering before the New Year

Time off work during the holidays is a perfect time to tidy up your home and work spaces to start the New Year right.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Do your New Year's resolutions include a push to clean up? Here are some tips to start


• Being organized is about being in control, says professional organizer Susan Fleischman


• Cleaning clutter can eliminate the need to buy what you simply can't find

(CNN) -- Whatever other resolutions we make leading up to the New Year -- to call Mom more often, lay off the late-night snacks -- getting ourselves organized is likely near the top of the list. And that often means clearing out the clutter that keeps us from functioning efficiently, whether we're at work or at home.

Many employees -- whether they go to actual offices or do their jobs from home -- find the last week of the calendar year is ideal for sorting through e-mails, clearing their desks, and reorganizing their work spaces. Sorting through stuff is rarely fun, but those who tackle it now will find themselves a step ahead when their now-vacationing colleagues and clients come staggering back after the holidays.

According to the National Association of Professional Organizers, which sponsors the annual "Get Organized Month" each January to help folks take control of their time, tasks and possessions, 83% of members polled say that "paper organization" ranks highest on their individual and corporate clients' to-do lists. For people taking time off between Christmas and New Year's, this week offers a chance to get things in order before 2013 arrives.

Devoting time to both physically and mentally clearing out the "old" and embracing the "new" is about more than just getting rid of stuff. Being organized is really about being in control, says Susan Fleischman, a Chicago-based professional organizer, home stager and founder of clutterfree.

"As joyous as the holidays can be, the period between Thanksgiving and New Year's is probably one of the most stressful of the year for people," she says. That's why spending the week after Christmas decluttering "really helps you recover and detox from the hustle and bustle of the holidays.

"It's very symbolic -- we're ramping up to the ultimate do-over. We all get to turn the calendar page and make a fresh start."

For those at work, says Fleischman, "the phone stops ringing, there are fewer meetings. Real work probably comes to a screeching halt. There are far fewer reasons to keep letting getting organized fall to the bottom of the to-do list." And these days, when employees often feel compelled to work harder and longer, being organized can be a real competitive advantage.

NAPO Industry Member Director Mary Dykstra says that on average, Americans waste time amounting to between six and 12 weeks a year searching for things in their offices and homes. "Just imagine if you could get out from under that clutter and spend that time helping your company build their business and ultimately, your career," says Fleischman, who was a public relations and marketing executive before launching her professional organizing business.

"Every minute counts when it comes to impressing the boss, your colleagues and clients. At work, we strive to project that we're knowledgeable, in control and experts. We're constantly accessing, sharing, reacting to information. Being able to put your hands on the information or generate some information means the better you'll be able to rise to the top and have clarity of thought and creativity, and maximize productivity."

But what about moving from work to the home front? Cynthia Ewer, the Washington state-based editor of OrganizedHome.com and the author of "The Complete Idiot's Guide to Getting Organized Fast-Track," suggests we use this in-between-holidays week to step back and reflect on our habits and how well they're working for us at home.

It's important to remember, says Ewer, that "there are different personality types. "Organized" is what works for you. There are filers -- people who love folders. They want the serenity of knowing where things are. Pilers like to keep their eyes on their stuff. Deniers have bags of paperwork shoved into closets. Instead of using a "What-does-it-look-like?" yardstick, it's a "How-will-it-work?" question. Know yourself, and come up with solutions that reflect who you are, she says.

After all, she says, " 'It's here somewhere' is the most frustrating phrase in the English language."

Cutting clutter also can boost the bottom line. "How many times do you go to the store and buy the things you couldn't find?" asks Fleischman. But cleaning up and cleaning out also can generate money, says Ewer.

"It can be a real fun process to turn your clutter into cash."

Nab tax deductions by donating cleared-out items to nonprofit organizations. Declutterers can send usable books, DVDs, video games, and music to third-party merchants in exchange for gift cards through the Amazon Trade-In Program. Even computer manufacturers like Apple offer gift cards to customers who send in an old iPhone, iPad, or computer for reuse or recycling if those devices still have monetary value.

"Leading an orderly life is about saving time, saving money, reducing stress," says Fleischman, who also blogs about organizing tips and clutter makeovers. "And that's energy you can spend on leisure pursuits, which is very important to emotional well-being."

Some tips for cutting through the workplace and home clutter this holiday week:

• Stockpile your supplies. Fleischman advises making sure you've got the right trash bins, shredders, file folders and markers at your fingertips before you start sorting and tossing.
• Take it a zone at a time. Your office, home and car didn't become a mess overnight, so declutter in increments. Fleischman suggests starting with desktops, then floors, then moving on to file cabinets and bookcases.
• Go from horizontal to vertical piles. If you're purging papers, clear those piles from your desk and the floor by placing newly sorted files in a cabinet or an upright vertical file. This way, your eyes can quickly scan and identify what you need at a glance.
• Free up the fridge. "Get the ghosts of Christmas past out of there -- all those little cans of this and that, the beef sticks from the gift basket no one can bear to throw out," says Ewer. Besides, this clean-up also will save you some calories.
• Be realistic. If you really write out bills at the kitchen table and not in the home office, says Ewer, get yourself a wheeled cart you can roll where the work gets done. If your kids' toys actually live in the family room -- not in the bedroom toy box -- create a storage solution there.

"Look at your patterns of living and organize yourself accordingly."

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Starbucks cups have a message for Congress

NEW YORK Starbucks is using its coffee cups to jump into the political fray in Washington.

The world's biggest coffee chain is asking employees at cafes in the Washington, D.C. area to scribble the words "Come Together" on cups for drink orders on Thursday and Friday. CEO Howard Schultz says the words are intended as a message to lawmakers about the damage being caused by the divisive negotiations over the "fiscal cliff."

It's the first time employees at Starbucks cafes are being asked to write anything other than customers' names on cups.

While companies generally steer clear of politics to avoid alienating customers, the plea to "Come Together" is a sentiment unlikely to cause controversy. If anything, Starbucks could score points with customers and burnish its image as a socially conscious company.

This isn't the first time the coffee chain is using its platform to send a political message. In the summer of 2011, Schultz also asked other CEOs and the public to stop making campaign contributions until politicians found a way to deal with a crisis over the debt ceiling that led to a downgrade in the country's credit rating.

For the latest push, Starbucks is taking out an ad in the Washington Post on Thursday showing a cup with the words "Come Together" on it.

The "fiscal cliff" refers to the steep tax hikes and spending cuts set to take effect Jan. 1, unless the White House and Congress reach an agreement to avoid them.

As for whether customers will be confused by the "Come Together" message or understand that it's related to the fiscal cliff, Schultz said in an interview that there's wide public awareness about the negotiations and that Starbucks will use social media to explain the effort. The Seattle-based company says test runs at select stores showed operations wouldn't be slowed.

Schultz says the message is a way to underscore the damage being done to the "consumer psyche and behavior" by the talks. Although he says Starbucks sales haven't been affected, he points out that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. CEO Mike Duke warned that fears over the fiscal cliff could cause Americans to pull back on holiday spending. Early figures have shown a relatively weak shopping season.

As for the negotiations, Schultz isn't taking any sides on the issues of tax increases or spending cuts.

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Weather Death Toll Up to 6 as Storm Churns North

A killer Christmas storm is churning its way north leaving hundreds of thousands without power and snarling travel plans for people trying to get home after the holiday.

Six people have died, mostly in weather related car crashes, as the South was hammered by as many as 34 tornadoes and a lethal coating of sleet and snow that spread from the South into the Midwest.

Over 280,000 customers are without across the South today with 100,000 without power in Little Rock, Ark. alone.

The wild weather isn't over. Eighteen states from Tennessee to Maine are under winter storm warnings, blizzard warnings and advisories. Between one and two feet of snow is expected from Indianapolis to Cleveland to Syracuse, N.Y. and into Maine.

The number of flight cancellations nationwide is growing by the hour on one of the busiest travel days of the holiday season. But by 2 p.m. more than 1,000 flights were canceled, according to FlightAware.com.

"Traveling will definitely be affected as people go home for the holidays," Bob Oravec, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service, told ABC News. "Anywhere from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and the Northeast, there's definitely going to be travel issues as we have heavy snow and some very high winds."

Flights were disrupted in traffic hubs like Indianapolis International Airport because of heavy snowfall as well as Dallas/Fort Worth which was hit with five inches of snow on Christmas, a rarity for the city.

PHOTOS: Christmas Storms

Cancellations and delays are expected to ripple into the Northeast today where high winds, flooding and more than a foot of snow in some areas is expected.

Heavy winds could further complicate matters for travelers. According to Flightaware.com, fliers are experiencing delays up to an hour in Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Washington, D.C.

Some airlines are issuing flexible travel policies for travelers holding airline tickets today and tomorrow. Delta Airlines is allowing travelers to change their flights through Jan. 2 with no penalty. United Airlines has enacted a similar policy, as has Southwest. Policies vary slightly from airline to airline, travelers should check their carrier's web site for specifics. JetBlue, which has a major presence in New York, has not yet issued a policy but warned travelers via its web site to be prepared for delays.

Wild Holiday Weather

Severe weather on Christmas day spawned 34 tornado reports from Texas to Alabama.

In Mobile, Ala., a wide funnel cloud was barreled across the city as lightning flashed inside like giant Christmas ornaments.

The punishing winds mangled Mobile's graceful ante-bellum homes, and today, dazed residents are picking through debris while rescue crews search for people trapped in the rubble.

Teresa Mason told ABC News that she and her boyfriend panicked when they saw the tornado heading toward them in Stone County, in southern Mississippi, but she says they were actually saved when a tree fell onto the truck.

"[We] got in the truck and made it out there to the road. And that's when the tornado was over us. And it started jerking us and spinning us, "she said."This tree got us in the truck and kept us from being sucked up into the tornado."

The last time a number of tornadoes hit the Gulf Coast area around Christmas Day was in 2009, when 22 tornadoes struck on Christmas Eve morning, National Weather Service spokesman Chris Vaccaro told ABC News.

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Hollywood movies can (mis)educate us

Movies for adults

Movies for adults

Movies for adults

Movies for adults

Movies for adults

Movies for adults

Movies for adults

Movies for adults

Movies for adults

Movies for adults

Movies for adults

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Dean Obeidallah: A movie or TV show can educate or (mis)educate you


• Obeidallah: Two new films about hot issues are firing up both the left and right


• Senators slammed "Zero Dark Thirty," and energy industry attacked "Promised Land"


• Obeidallah: What does Hollywood want? To make money, of course

Editor's note: Dean Obeidallah, a former attorney, is a political comedian and frequent commentator on various TV networks including CNN. He is the editor of the politics blog "The Dean's Report" and co-director of the upcoming documentary "The Muslims Are Coming!" Follow him on Twitter: @deanofcomedy

(CNN) -- Can a movie actually convince you to support torture? Can a movie really persuade you that "fracking" -- a process used to drill for natural gas -- is a danger to the environment? Can a movie truly cause you to view certain minority groups in a negative light?

Some scoff at the notion that movies do anything more than entertain. They are wrong. Sure, it's unlikely that one movie alone will change your views on issues of magnitude. But a movie (or TV show) can begin your "education" or "miseducation" on a topic. And for those already agreeing with the film's thesis, it can further entrench your views.

Anyone who doubts the potential influence that movies can have on public opinion need to look no further than two films that are causing an uproar even before they have opened nationwide. They present hot button issues that manage to fire up people from the left and right.

Dean Obeidallah

The first, "Zero Dark Thirty," is about the pursuit and killing of Osama bin Laden, which features scenes of torture. The second, "Promised Land," stars Matt Damon and explores how the use of fracking to drill for natural gas can pose health and environmental dangers.

Critics of "Zero Dark Thirty" fear that audiences will accept as true the film's story line that torture was effective in eliciting information to locate bin Laden. They are rightfully concerned that the film will sway some to become more receptive or even supportive of the idea of torturing prisoners.

Peter Bergen: Did torture really net bin Laden?

Opposition to the film escalated last week as three senior U.S. senators -- John McCain, Carl Levin and Dianne Feinstein -- sent a letter to the film's distributor, Sony Pictures, characterizing the film's use of torture as "grossly inaccurate and misleading." The senators bluntly informed Sony Pictures that it has "an obligation to state that the role of torture in the hunt for Osama bin Laden is not based on the facts, but rather part of the film's fictional narrative."

Is this just more liberal whining?

Well, the hostility toward "Promised Land" shows us that it's not just liberals who complain about movie messages. Big business -- namely, the gas industry -- is aggressively objecting to the allegation in "Promised Land" that fracking poses environmental and health risks.

How concerned is the gas industry?

It has set up a rapid response team to counter publicity for the film by using two Washington-based groups that lobby for gas and oil companies: the Independent Petroleum Association of America and Energy in Depth. These groups have scrutinized appearances by the films stars on talk shows, questioned who the financiers of the film are, published parts of the script and mocked the film on social media.

Energy in Depth went as far as to "fact check" a recent appearance by the films co-star and co-writer, John Krasinski, on "Late Night With David Letterman." Within hours of Krasinski's appearance, Energy in Depth posted a blog on its website pointing out what it perceived as factual errors made by Krasinski about fracking.

Regardless of whether "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Promised Land" intended to promote any message, people who watch them will be "educated" in some way on torture and fracking -- even if very subtly.

This is the same reason that minority groups continue to object being represented in a negative light in movies and TV. They understand that accurate representations matter because studies have shown that biases can form based on stereotypes or inaccurate representations. (Being of Italian and Arab descent, I'm acutely aware of this issue as my respective heritages have been represented by a parade of mobsters and terrorists.)

What's Hollywood's role in all of this? The same as it has always been -- to make money.

In fact, there's no doubt that the studios behind these movies are overjoyed at the controversy that has erupted and the resulting free press. Indeed, the response of Sony Pictures to the uproar over "Zero Dark Thirty" tells you about what they really hope we will all do: "We encourage people to see the film before characterizing it."

So go ahead, enjoy these films and ones like them that are based on actual events or current hot issues. But while you are watching them, be aware you might be getting more than the price of ticket. You might also be getting a (mis)education.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Dean Obeidallah.

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Netanyahu launches re-election bid centred on Iran

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday put Iran at the top of his re-election campaign, pledging that halting Tehran's nuclear programme would be his first priority as premier.

"Who do (Israeli voters) think is the most suitable candidate to deal with the Iranian threat? With the missile threat? With the threat of terror?" he asked supporters in Jerusalem in a speech at the official launch of his campaign for January 22 polls.

"We still have a lot ahead of us," he said. "First and foremost we must stop Iran's nuclear programme, and the time for that is slipping away ... That is my first mission as prime minister."

Israel and Western powers accuse Iran of seeking to acquire a weapons capability under the guise of its nuclear energy programme. Iran denies the charge, saying its work is for peaceful purposes only.

At a speech before the UN's General Assembly in September, Netanyahu warned that if Iran continued work at the current pace, it could have the necessary material for a first bomb by the summer of 2013.

In his speech on Tuesday night, Netanyahu expanded on what he termed his government's economic achievements and laid out his future goals. He only briefly addressed the peace process.

"Our hand will continue to be extended to our neighbours for true and mutual peace, while continuing to insist on the state of Israel's vital interests -- I'm telling you -- in the face of all the pressure," he said.

On Monday, Israel approved the latest in a series of construction plans for approximately 5,000 Jewish homes in east Jerusalem and the West Bank.

Palestinians want east Jerusalem as capital of their promised state, and they -- along with the international community -- consider settlement construction in east Jerusalem and the West Bank a violation of international law.

"With God's help, we will continue to live and build in Jerusalem, which will always stay united under Israeli sovereignty," Netanyahu said.

Polls predict that Netanyahu's Likud party, which is running on a joint list with the ultranationalist Yisrael Beitenu faction of former foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, will be by far the largest party in the next parliament.

-AFP/ac

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Top celebs

updated 9:20 AM EST, Thu December 20, 2012

CNN readers' favorites: Celebrity women

No. 10: Sandra Bullock

No. 9: Angelina Jolie

No. 8: Katy Perry

No. 7: Taylor Swift

No. 6: Sofia Vergara

No. 5: Carrie Underwood

No. 4: Jennifer Lawrence

No. 3: Jennifer Aniston

No. 2: Adele

No. 1: Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge

CNN readers' favorites: Celebrity men

No. 10: Justin Timberlake

No. 9: Jeremy Renner

No. 8: Brad Pitt

No. 7: Ryan Gosling

No. 6: Adam Levine

No. 5: Joseph Gordon-Levitt

No. 4: Ben Affleck

No. 3: Channing Tatum

No. 2: Johnny Depp

No. 1: Daniel Craig

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Messy, dangerous Christmas weather turns deadly

Updated 2:05 p.m. EST

NEW ORLEANS Freezing rain and sleet made for a sloppy Christmas morning trek in parts of the nation's midsection on Tuesday, while residents along the Gulf Coast braced for thunderstorms, high winds and tornadoes.

Icy roads already were blamed for a 21-vehicle pileup in Oklahoma, where authorities warned would-be travelers to stay home. Fog blanketed highways, including arteries in the Atlanta area where motorists slowed as a precaution. In New Mexico, drivers across the eastern plains had to fight through snow, ice and low visibility.

At least two tornadoes were reported in Texas, though only one building was damaged, according to the National Weather Service.

Authorities say a powerful storm moving across the southeast toppled a tree onto a pickup truck in the Houston area, killing the driver. Harris County Sheriff's Deputy Thomas Gilliland says the tree fell onto the truck around 9:40 a.m. local time Tuesday.

More than 150 flights nationwide were canceled by midday, according to the flight tracker FlightAware.com. More than half were canceled by American Airlines and its regional affiliate, American Eagle.

American is headquartered and has its biggest hub at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport.

Meanwhile, a blizzard watch was posted for parts of Indiana and western Kentucky for storms expected to unfold Tuesday amid predictions of up to 4 to 7 inches of snow in coming hours. Much of Oklahoma and Arkansas braced under a winter storm warning of an early mix of rain and sleet forecast to eventually turn to snow.

Some mountainous areas of Arkansas' Ozark Mountains could get up to 10 inches of snow, which would make travel "very hazardous or impossible" in the northern tier of the state from near whiteout conditions, the National Weather Service said.

Elsewhere, areas of east Texas and Louisiana braced for possible thunderstorms as forecasters eyed a developing storm front expected to spread across the Gulf Coast to the Florida Panhandle.

The holiday may conjure visions of snow and ice, but twisters this time of year are not unheard of. Ten storm systems in the last 50 years have spawned at least one Christmastime tornado with winds of 113 mph or more in the South, said Chris Vaccaro, a National Weather Service spokesman in Washington, via email.

The most lethal were the storms of Dec. 24-26, 1982, when 29 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi killed three people and injured 32; and those of Dec. 24-25, 1964, when two people were killed and about 30 people injured by 14 tornadoes in seven states.

Quarter-sized hail reported early Tuesday in western Louisiana was expected to be just the start of a severe weather threat on the Gulf Coast, said meteorologist Mike Efferson at the weather service office in Slidell, La. Tornado watches were in effect across southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana.

Storms along the Gulf Coast could bring winds up to 70 mph, heavy rain, more large hail and dangerous lightning in Louisiana and Mississippi, Efferson said. Furthermore, warm, moist air colliding with a cold front could produce dangerous straight-line winds.

The storm was moving quickly and was expected to intensify as it headed into northeast Louisiana and Mississippi into the late afternoon and early evening, said Bill Adams at the weather service's Shreveport, La., office.

In Mississippi, Gov. Phil Bryant urged residents to have a plan for any severe weather.

"It only takes a few minutes, and it will help everyone have a safe Christmas," Bryant said.

In Alabama, the director of the Emergency Management Agency, Art Faulkner, said he has briefed both local officials and Gov. Robert Bentley on plans for dealing with a possible outbreak of storms.

No day is good for severe weather, but Faulkner said Christmas adds extra challenges because people are visiting unfamiliar areas and often thinking more of snow than possible twisters.

In California, after a brief reprieve across the northern half of the state on Monday, wet weather was expected to make another appearance on Christmas Day. Flooding and snarled holiday traffic were expected in Southern California.

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Shootings: Suicide risk gives clues

A sign near a cemetery of a victim in the school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Daniel Flannery: Studies show there is no distinct profile of school shooters


• Flannery: We can take lessons from what we know about risk for suicide


• He says we can do better to assess a person's risk for violent action toward others


• Flannery: Communities and schools should pay more attention to kids' mental health

Editor's note: Daniel J. Flannery is the Dr. Semi J. and Ruth Begun professor and director of the Begun Center for Violence Prevention, Research and Education at the Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences at Case Western Reserve University.

(CNN) -- It is hard not to feel a sense of despair, loss and anxiety over the shooting in Newtown, Connecticut. We want answers. We may not know for a very long time, if ever, what really motivated the shooter.

Previous studies of school shooters show us that some common mental health symptoms characterize many of the perpetrators, including poor anger management ability, narcissism, low self-esteem and lack of empathy. However, there are still many more differences across shooters than similarities, so to date there is no distinct profile of school shooters.

What can we do, aside from the psychological autopsying of recent incidents, to try and prevent more homicide school shootings? There is no simple answer. But we can take some lessons from what we know about risk for suicide.

Daniel J. Flannery

For many years, we have done a pretty good job of getting people to take threats of suicide seriously. If a young person walks into a counselor's office and says something like, "I think I'm going to kill myself," that counselor has been professionally trained and socialized to not underestimate the threat of self-injury.

Certainly, not every young adult who says such a thing goes on to commit suicide. Evidence shows that many of them have at least thought about hurting or killing themselves at some point, but few actually make a real attempt and fewer still carry it out.

Developing a good model for assessing the risk of suicide can provide a framework for how to assess the seriousness of threats to commit acts of violence toward others.

For example, one of the best predictors of suicide is previous suicide attempts. We try to determine whether a person has access to lethal methods of self-harm (drugs, firearms) and how detailed are the plans to carry out the act. We look for signs of anger and whether the person has experienced a recent crisis or loss. We try to figure out if a person's sense of rejection or disenfranchisement leads to a sense of hopelessness about the future, and a conviction that suicide is the only way out of a desperate situation. Moreover, if a person knows someone close who has committed suicide, we have to be vigilant since there tends to be an increase (clustering) of suicides among friends or acquaintances.

Each of these signposts can help us do a better job of assessing a person's risk for carrying out acts of violence toward others like in the school shootings.

We can look for any history of violence -- whether the person has written about or told others of his or her intent. We can try to find out whether the person has access to firearms or has thought out a plan to carry out an attack. We can try to evaluate levels of anger, feelings of rejection, or expressions of hopelessness about the future.

Most adolescent school shooters have said something to peers prior to taking any action, but not always to the direct target of an attack, and rarely to an adult. (In contrast, in rampage shootings carried out by adults, we don't have as much information and they don't usually give verbal warnings or threats beforehand.)

Ideally, assessing the risk would be carried out using a validated set of reliable indicators, with detailed semi-structured interviews performed by trained mental health professionals. In schools, social workers, counselors or school psychologists can screen young people for risk of potential violence perpetration and refer them to other mental health professionals who could do a more thorough assessment if necessary. Of course, adequate screenings depend largely on adequate time, resources and staff training.

Not every young person who makes a threat to hurt others will end up committing an act of violence toward others, and very few will ever commit a multiple mass shooting. But just as we take threats of suicide seriously, we should pay equal attention to those who say they might harm others.

We have to do all we can to make sure our children are safe, and that they all come home at the end of the school day. We can take steps as a community to pay attention to mental health and violence as it occurs every day, not just when horrible acts of great magnitude occur.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Daniel J. Flannery.

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